Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Really Random

I read yesterday that when asked to select a random number (of ten), people say "7" with the most frequency; it seems to conform to what people believe is a "random" number. The point is, then, our choice is not really random. People will probably say "7".

In a quick experiment, I typed 100 numbers (0-9) in Excel. If I did it randomly like I tried, it should be about 10 each:

0 - 14
1 - 8
2 - 6
3 - 6
4 - 8
5 - 15
6 - 13
7 - 8
8 - 8
9 - 11

So "5" wins for me (maybe because it's in the middle of the keypad?). As n, the numbers generated increases by a random generator, it probably will converge to 10% each. What about for a human? Probably it would diverge to way way off 10% for some numbers as n increases. I could test it at n=1000 but I don't have that much time on my hands.

Us human beings are not random, I'm learning, so much of our choices are shaped by past experiences, in that our choice of a random number is likely colored by what we think a random color "should" be. We often say "7", as does everyone else. What does this say for free will vs. determinism?

This posting, I now think, was really random, though in a different sense of the word.

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